Transferable Tax Credit Market Intelligence Report

Q3 2026 Pricing & Trends Report

Prepared from marketplace activity, broker pricing, and direct to sponsor transaction trends we observe across every major clean energy tax credit source.

Overview

Halfway through 2026, the transferable tax credit market looks different from the one many were forecasting at the start of the year. The story coming out of Q1 was buyers returning with renewed enthusiasm, with newfound clarity on their tax positions after the dust settled from the summer 2025 OBBBA legislative changes, and bidding pricing back up, particularly on solar investment tax credits and advanced manufacturing credits.

We have seen an increase in demand and corporate participation is broadening. Still, supply has grown faster than demand, and the market has shifted from the buyer-constrained conditions of 2023–2024 into a supply-rich environment. The practical result is increased liquidity, pricing power has moved toward buyers, and the market is separating into premium credits that hold firm and everything else that increasingly competes on price.

What's Driving the Market Right Now

Supply has outrun demand. The slowdown in the back half of 2025 was likely largely a result of a demand problem stemming from buyers stepping back to reassess liability after last summer's OBBBA changes. Although buyer participation is expanding in 2026, there is a wave of freshly generated credits this year that has met a buyer pool that simply hasn't grown at the same pace. That imbalance is the most relevant force in the market today.

Buyers are shifting toward PTCs. We're seeing a preference shift toward production tax credits (“PTCs”), traditional renewables production credits alongside the newer advanced manufacturing and clean fuel credits. The logic is straightforward: PTCs carry no recapture risk, involve no eligible basis step-up to defend, and are easier to diligence. As appetite migrates toward PTCs, it pulls support out from investment tax credits (“ITCs”).

FEOC compliance is a bottleneck. Ongoing focus on foreign entity of concern rules (“FEOC”) is creating a real friction point for some credits while increasing the value of others, particularly for technology-neutral ITCs from projects that haven't locked in eligibility. A meaningful pool of deals is effectively parked, waiting on further regulatory clarity before committing capital. Buyers are pricing that uncertainty in or finding credits to purchase that do not have any FEOC concerns.

Seasonality is doing what it always does. Early year appetite remained anchored to prior-year credits, which made current-year 2026 supply harder to place through the first half of the year. We're now seeing the customary second-half pickup in 2026 credits interest, consistent with the annual rhythm of the market.

Supply-Side Pressures Worth Watching

Three developing supply dynamics are shaping the near-term picture:

• Manufacturing ramp. Advanced manufacturing production continues to scale, and the associated credits scale right alongside it. That incremental volume is beginning to press on the lower end of manufacturing tax credit pricing even where the headline range holds.
• Clean fuel issuance. A substantial volume of c, many of them tied to ethanol production, is now reaching the market. That increased supply has been a genuine contributor to the recent improved pricing. These credits rarely have FEOC issues.
• Residential platforms chasing working capital. A new wave of residential clean energy finance platforms is turning to the transfer market for liquidity, looking to sell on a monthly or quarterly basis. These newer sellers often accept lower pricing in exchange for faster cash.
• Bank indemnities as a partial or full substitution for insurance. More and more often we see bank indemnities replacing insurance in transactions due to increased insurance costs, exclusions on FEOC risk pending further official guidance, and post-OBBBA change in law exclusions.

Where Credits Are Clearing Today

The ranges below reflect what we're currently seeing on transactions above roughly $5 million in credit volume. Every deal ultimately prices to its own facts; credit type, size, insurance and indemnity package, prevailing wage and adder status, and seller quality all move the number. Generally, credits must either be insured or guaranteed, determined by the specifics of each transaction

Reading the Trend Line

When we average executed transfers by the quarter in which the term sheet is signed, the pattern is clean: PTCs have held firm for the most part, while ITC pricing has drifted lower through the back half of 2025 and into 2026. Advanced-manufacturing credits have held near the top of their range with a recent softening. Taken together, the prior-year credits focus, FEOC concerns, and the shift toward PTCs should keep ITC pricing under near term pressure.

What It Means

For sellers: This is a market that rewards being easy to transact with. Clean documentation, a credible insurance and indemnity package, and a well-defined credit track record matter more than ever when buyers can afford to be selective. Sellers of ITCs in particular should expect to compete on price and weigh timing against price.

For buyers: The current imbalance is a genuine opportunity to lock in attractive 2026 pricing with the widest spreads on ITCs and in the emerging clean fuel and manufacturing segments where new supply is coming from newer sellers. We expect supply density to persist in the near term.

For the market overall: In our view, the most important signal isn't pricing, but rather growing adoption. Participation keeps broadening across industries, company sizes, and buyer profiles. Through increased adoption along with better understanding of transferable tax credits, corporate tax departments are increasingly relying on them to reduce their federal tax liability.

Bottom Line

Q3 2026 marks the market's transition into a more mature phase, one defined more and more by credit differentiation. Credits with simple diligence, no recapture risk, strong counterparties, and clean compliance continue to command a premium. Everything else increasingly competes on price against a rising tide of supply. Absent a significant regulatory shift, we expect pricing to stay largely rangebound through the balance of the year: PTCs resilient, ITCs under mild pressure, and credit quality, not credit type alone, operating as the determinant of how any given deal transacts.

This is intended as market commentary based on marketplace and broker pricing and transaction trends we observe across the credit market. It should not be construed as tax, legal, accounting, or investment advice, and it is not a published price index. Pricing on any given transaction depends on its specific facts.